New federal budget estimates 2.5% GDP growth next year
Brazil’s GDP is expected to grow 2.5 percent next year, after rising 2.31 percent in 2025. The estimate is included in the 2026 budget, submitted to Congress as a bill Tuesday (Apr. 15).
The country’s official inflation should sink to 3.5 percent in 2026, 3.1 percent in 2027, and three percent in 2028 and 2029, compared to the 4.9 percent forecast for this year.
The projection for next year’s inflation is therefore within the three percent target set by the National Monetary Council, with a margin of 1.5 percentage points.
The budget also foresees an accumulated Selic rate—the Brazilian economy’s benchmark interest rate—of 12.56 percent a year for 2026, 10.09 percent for 2027, 8.27 percent for 2028, and 7.27 percent for 2029. Currently, the Selic stands at 14.25 percent per year.
The text sent to Congress predicts an average exchange rate of BRL 5.97 for 2026, BRL 5.91 for 2027, BRL 5.07 for 2028, and BRL 5.10 for 2029.
The bill also estimates the average price of a barrel of oil (used to estimate the federal government’s revenue from royalties) at $66.74 next year, $66.26 in 2027, $66.42 in 2028, and $66.65 in 2029.
